Why a ‘bullish’ RUNE doesn’t tell us the whole story

RUNE is at present trying a restoration after extending its draw back over the previous few days. It just lately retested its structural assist close to the $3-price degree too.

The final time RUNE traded across the identical value level was on 23 February and 21 July, each after main bear runs. It seems to be like issues aren’t very totally different this time, particularly because the retest comes after a significant downturn.

RUNE’s value dropped by roughly 80% from its end-of-March excessive to its present assist degree.

RUNEUSDT 2022 05 15 14 29 19 1

Supply: TradingView

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RUNE was buying and selling at $3.36m on the time of writing, after a notable restoration from its $2.46 low on 12 Could. The value registered a pullback after the current native low, earlier than closing the day on the 0% Fibonacci assist line.

RUNE’s value seems to be like it’s on a bullish restoration path. A brief-term rally will seemingly retest assist close to the 2 closest Fibonacci retracement ranges on the 23.60% and 38.2% traces. Which means that it would seemingly encounter assist close to the $5.42 and $6.90 value ranges, respectively.

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Will RUNE preserve the bullish trajectory?

RUNE’s value motion has been closely oversold over the previous few weeks and is due for a major retracement. This expectation is additional supported by the very fact RUNE’s RSI entered the oversold zone at its current low. It additionally registered wholesome accumulation which aided its ongoing restoration.

The bullish efficiency over the past three days can be an indication of downward pattern exhaustion, paving the way in which for the bears to take over. RUNE’s on-chain metrics additional align with the aforementioned observations.

For instance, the ‘provide held by whales’ metric signifies that the sell-off is tapering out.

The ‘Binance derivatives funding fee’ metric confirms a restoration to regular ranges, thus exhibiting an indication of restored curiosity from the derivatives market.

THORChain RUNE 15.13.14 15 May 2022

Supply: Santiment

Moreover, developer exercise has seen a pointy drop within the final 5 days. That is seemingly because of the impression of UST de-pegging, particularly as builders await a return to normalcy.

THORChain’s newest improve additionally revealed that builders are ready for the Terra staff to supply a restoration plan.


RUNE’s overdue restoration may lastly be right here. Nevertheless, it doesn’t essentially imply the rally is assured. The markets have proved to be extraordinarily unstable and that volatility may strike but once more in favor of extra draw back.

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